MAFIFICIN ALAƘIN FARKO GA waɗanda ke tantance damammaki shine yawan jama'a, wanda ke ƙayyade girman jimlar kasuwar da za a iya magancewa (TAM). Shi ya sa kamfanoni suka jawo hankalin China da duk waɗannan masu amfani.
Baya ga girman da ya yi yawa, yawan shekarun al'umma, kudaden shiga da kuma ci gaban kasuwannin da ke da dorewa da marasa dorewa, da sauran abubuwa suma suna shafar bukatar resin filastik.
Amma a ƙarshe, bayan tantance duk waɗannan abubuwan, ɗaya daga cikinraba buƙata ta hanyar yawan jama'a don yin lissafibuƙatar kowace mutum, muhimmin adadi ne na kwatanta kasuwanni daban-daban.
Masu nazarin alƙaluma sun fara sake tunani game da ci gaban yawan jama'a a nan gaba kuma suna kammala da cewa yawan jama'a a duniya zai ƙaru da wuri da kuma ƙasa saboda raguwar haihuwa a Afirka da kuma ƙarancin haihuwa a China da wasu ƙasashe da ba za su taɓa murmurewa ba. Wannan zai iya kawo cikas ga hasashen kasuwa da yanayin tattalin arzikin duniya.
Yawan al'ummar China ya karu daga miliyan 546 a shekarar 1950 zuwa biliyan 1.43 a hukumance a shekarar 2020. Tsarin haihuwa na ɗa ɗaya na shekarar 1979-2015 ya haifar da raguwar haihuwa, raguwar rabon maza da mata da kuma ƙaruwar yawan jama'a, inda yanzu Indiya ta maye gurbin China a matsayin ƙasa mafi yawan jama'a.
Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta yi hasashen cewa yawan al'ummar China zai ragu zuwa biliyan 1.26 a shekarar 2050 da kuma miliyan 767 nan da shekarar 2100. Waɗannan sun ragu da miliyan 53 da miliyan 134, bi da bi, idan aka kwatanta da hasashen da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta yi a baya.
Binciken da masana kimiyyar jama'a (Shanghai Academy of Sciences, Victoria University of Australia, da sauransu) suka yi kwanan nan ya nuna shakku kan hasashen da aka yi game da yawan jama'a da ke bayan waɗannan hasashen, kuma ana sa ran yawan jama'ar China zai ragu zuwa ƙasa da biliyan 1.22 a shekarar 2050 da kuma miliyan 525 a shekarar 2100.
Tambayoyi kan kididdigar haihuwa
Mai nazarin yanayin jama'a Yi Fuxian a Jami'ar Wisconsin ya yi tambaya game da zato game da yawan jama'ar China a yanzu da kuma hanyar da za a bi don ci gaba. Ya duba bayanan alƙaluman jama'a na China kuma ya gano bambance-bambance a bayyane kuma akai-akai, kamar rashin daidaito tsakanin haihuwar da aka ruwaito da adadin alluran rigakafin yara da kuma waɗanda suka shiga makarantar firamare.
Ya kamata waɗannan su yi daidai da juna, kuma ba sa yin hakan. Masu sharhi suna ganin akwai ƙarfafa gwiwa ga gwamnatocin ƙananan hukumomi don ƙara yawan bayanai. Idan aka yi la'akari da Razor na Occam, mafi sauƙin bayani shine cewa haihuwar ba ta taɓa faruwa ba.
Yi ya yi hasashen cewa yawan al'ummar China a shekarar 2020 ya kai biliyan 1.29, ba biliyan 1.42 ba, wanda ya kai sama da miliyan 130. Wannan lamari ya fi kamari a arewa maso gabashin China inda injin tattalin arziki ya tsaya cak. Yi ya yi hasashen cewa da ƙarancin yawan haihuwa - 0.8 idan aka kwatanta da matakin maye gurbin 2.1 - yawan al'ummar China zai faɗi zuwa biliyan 1.10 a shekarar 2050 da kuma miliyan 390 a shekarar 2100. Lura cewa yana da wani hasashen da ya fi muni.
Mun ga wasu kiyasi da ke nuna cewa yawan al'ummar China zai iya zama ƙasa da miliyan 250 idan aka kwatanta da yadda ake rahoto a yanzu. China ce ke da kusan kashi 40% na buƙatar resins na filastik a duniya, don haka, wasu abubuwan da za su iya shafar yawan jama'a da sauran abubuwa suna da tasiri sosai kan yadda ake buƙatar resins na filastik a duniya.
Bukatar resin ga kowace mutum a China a halin yanzu tana da yawa idan aka kwatanta da yawancin ƙasashe masu ci gaba, sakamakon robobi - yawan kayayyakin da aka fitar da su daga ƙasashen waje da kuma rawar da China ke takawa a matsayin "masana'anta ga duniya". Wannan yana canzawa.
Gabatar da yanayin
Da wannan a zuciya, mun yi nazari kan wasu daga cikin hasashen Yi Fuxian kuma muka samar da wani yanayi daban game da yiwuwar makomar yawan jama'a da buƙatun robobi na China. Don tushenmu, muna amfani da hasashen Majalisar Dinkin Duniya game da yawan jama'a na China na 2024.
An sake duba wannan hasashen Majalisar Dinkin Duniya game da yawan al'ummar China daga kimantawar da aka yi a baya. Sannan muka yi amfani da sabbin hasashen bayanai na ICIS Supply & Buƙatu zuwa 2050.
Wannan ya nuna buƙatar resins na kowace mutum a China - acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) da polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - sun tashi daga kusan kilogiram 73 a shekarar 2020 zuwa kilogiram 144 a shekarar 2050.
Mun kuma yi nazari kan lokacin bayan shekarar 2050 kuma mun yi zaton cewa buƙatar resin ga kowane mutum zai ƙaru zuwa kilogiram 150 a cikin shekarun 2060 kafin ya kai ga ƙarshen ƙarni - zuwa kilogiram 141 a cikin 2100 - wani sauyi da kuma hanyar da ta saba da tattalin arzikin da ya girma. Misali, buƙatar kowane mutum ga waɗannan resin ga kowane mutum a Amurka ya kai kilogiram 101 a cikin 2004.
Idan aka yi la'akari da wani yanayi daban, mun yi zaton cewa yawan jama'a a shekarar 2020 ya kai biliyan 1.42, amma a nan gaba yawan haihuwa zai kai matsakaicin haihuwa 0.75, wanda zai haifar da yawan jama'a a shekarar 2050 wanda ya kai biliyan 1.15 da kuma yawan jama'a 2100 wanda ya kai miliyan 373. Mun kira wannan yanayi Dire Demographics.
A wannan yanayin, mun kuma yi zaton cewa saboda ƙalubalen tattalin arziki, buƙatar resin za ta girma da wuri kuma a ƙasa da haka. Wannan ya samo asali ne daga yadda China ba ta tserewa matsayin matsakaicin masu shiga tattalin arziki zuwa tattalin arziki mai ci gaba ba.
Yanayin yanayin alƙaluma yana haifar da matsaloli da yawa a fannin tattalin arziki. A wannan yanayin, China ta rasa rabon fitar da kayayyaki a duniya saboda sabbin tsare-tsare da wasu ƙasashe ke yi da kuma rikicin ciniki, wanda hakan ya haifar da ƙarancin buƙatar robobi daga yawan kayayyakin da aka fitar daga waje - idan aka kwatanta da na asali - zuwa ƙasashen waje.
Muna kuma tsammanin cewa ɓangaren ayyuka zai samu a matsayin wani ɓangare na tattalin arzikin ƙasar Sin. Bugu da ƙari, batutuwan kadarori da basussuka suna da tasiri kan ƙarfin tattalin arziki har zuwa shekarun 2030. Ana ci gaba da sauye-sauye a tsarin gine-gine. A wannan yanayin, mun yi misali da buƙatar resin ga kowane mutum a matsayin wanda ya tashi daga kilogiram 73 a shekarar 2020 zuwa kilogiram 101 a shekarar 2050 kuma ya kai kilogiram 104.
Sakamakon yanayin
A ƙarƙashin Dokar Tushe, manyan buƙatun resins sun tashi daga tan miliyan 103.1 a shekarar 2020 kuma sun fara girma a cikin shekarun 2030, inda suka kai tan miliyan 188.6 a shekarar 2050. Bayan shekarar 2050, raguwar yawan jama'a da kuma ci gaban yanayin kasuwa/tattalin arziki yana shafar buƙata, wanda ya faɗi zuwa tan miliyan 89.3 a shekarar 2100. Wannan matakin ya yi daidai da buƙatar kafin shekarar 2020.
Tare da hangen nesa mai kyau game da yawan jama'a da raguwar ƙarfin tattalin arziki a ƙarƙashin yanayin Dire Demographics, buƙatar manyan resins ya tashi daga tan miliyan 103.1 a shekarar 2020 kuma ya fara girma a cikin shekarun 2030, ya kai tan miliyan 116.2 a shekarar 2050.
Tare da raguwar yawan jama'a da kuma mummunan tasirin tattalin arziki, buƙatar ta faɗi zuwa tan miliyan 38.7 a shekarar 2100, matakin da ya yi daidai da buƙatar da aka yi kafin shekarar 2010.
Abubuwan da ke haifar da wadatar kai da ciniki
Akwai illa ga wadatar da kai ga resin robobi na China da kuma daidaiton cinikinta. A cikin Base Case, babban samar da resin a China ya karu daga tan miliyan 75.7 a shekarar 2020 zuwa tan miliyan 183.9 a shekarar 2050.
Shafin Farko ya nuna cewa China ta ci gaba da shigo da manyan resins, amma matsayinta na shigo da kayayyaki ya ragu daga tan miliyan 27.4 a shekarar 2020 zuwa tan miliyan 4.7 a shekarar 2050. Mun mayar da hankali ne kawai kan lokacin zuwa 2050.
A cikin wannan lokaci, samar da resin galibi yana gudana kamar yadda aka tsara yayin da China ke son wadatar da kanta. Amma nan da shekarar 2030, faɗaɗa ƙarfin aiki zai ragu a kasuwar duniya da ke da yawan wadata da kuma karuwar tashin hankalin ciniki.
Sakamakon haka, a ƙarƙashin yanayin Dire Demographics, samar da kayayyaki ya isa sosai, kuma a farkon shekarun 2030, China ta sami wadatar zuci a cikin waɗannan resins ɗin, kuma ta zama ƙasa mai fitar da tan miliyan 3.6 a shekarar 2035, tan miliyan 7.1 a shekarar 2040, tan miliyan 9.7 a shekarar 2045 da kuma tan miliyan 11.6 a shekarar 2050.
Tare da mummunan yanayin alƙaluma da ƙalubalen tattalin arziki, wadatar kai da kuma matsayin fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ƙasashen waje an cimma su da wuri amma ana "sarrafa su" don rage tashe-tashen hankulan ciniki.
Ba shakka, mun yi nazari mai zurfi kan ilimin kididdigar jama'a, makomar raguwar haihuwa da raguwar haihuwa. "Ƙididdigar jama'a ƙaddara ce", kamar yadda masanin falsafar Faransa na ƙarni na 19 Auguste Comte ya faɗa. Amma ƙaddara ba a saita ta a kan dutse ba. Wannan ita ce makoma mai yiwuwa.
Akwai wasu abubuwan da za su iya faruwa a nan gaba, ciki har da waɗanda yawan haihuwa ya dawo kuma sabbin sabbin fasahohin zamani suka haɗu don haɓaka yawan aiki da kuma ci gaban tattalin arziki. Amma yanayin da aka gabatar a nan zai iya taimaka wa kamfanonin sinadarai su yi tunani game da rashin tabbas ta hanyar da aka tsara da kuma yanke shawara da ta shafi makomarsu - don a ƙarshe su rubuta labarinsu.
Lokacin Saƙo: Yuli-05-2025
