Tattalin arzikin duniya yana fuskantar rashin tabbas mafi muni a cikin tarihin samar da kayayyaki.
Ƙungiyoyin da ke wakiltar masana'antar buga tawada a sassa daban-daban na Turai sun yi cikakken bayani game da yanayin rashin tabbas da ƙalubalen da fannin ke fuskanta yayin da yake shirin shiga shekarar 2022.
TheƘungiyar Tawada ta Bugawa ta Turai (EuPIA)ya nuna gaskiyar cewa annobar cutar coronavirus ta ƙirƙiri yanayi na gama gari kamar abubuwan da ake buƙata don guguwa mai kyau. Yanzu ana ganin tarin abubuwa daban-daban suna yin mummunan tasiri ga dukkan sarkar samar da kayayyaki.
Yawancin masana tattalin arziki da kwararru kan harkar samar da kayayyaki suna da ra'ayin cewa tattalin arzikin duniya yana fuskantar rashin tabbas mafi muni a cikin tarihin samar da kayayyaki. Bukatar kayayyaki ta ci gaba da wuce gona da iri kan samar da kayayyaki, sakamakon haka, wadatar kayan masarufi da jigilar kaya a duniya ya yi tasiri sosai.
Wannan yanayi, wanda annobar duniya ta haifar wanda ke ci gaba da haifar da rufe masana'antu a ƙasashe da yawa, ya ƙara ta'azzara da farko ta hanyar masu sayayya da ke gida suna siyan kayayyaki fiye da yadda aka saba kuma a wajen lokutan da ake fuskantar yanayi mai kyau. Na biyu, farfaɗowar tattalin arzikin duniya a lokaci guda a faɗin duniya ya haifar da ƙarin ƙaruwar buƙata.
Matsalolin da suka shafi samar da kayayyaki da suka taso kai tsaye sakamakon buƙatuwar keɓewa daga cutar da kuma ƙarancin ma'aikata da direbobi sun haifar da matsaloli, yayin da a China, aka rage yawan fitar da kayayyaki saboda Shirin Rage Makamashi na China, da kuma ƙarancin muhimman kayan aiki sun ƙara ta'azzara ciwon kai a masana'antar.
Muhimman Damuwa
Ga masu samar da tawada da fenti na bugawa, karancin sufuri da kayan masarufi na haifar da matsaloli iri-iri, kamar yadda aka bayyana a kasa:
• _x0007_Kawo da rashin daidaiton buƙata ga kayan masarufi masu mahimmanci da ake amfani da su wajen samar da tawada ta bugawa—misali man kayan lambu da abubuwan da suka samo asali, sinadarai masu amfani da man fetur, launuka da TiO2—suna haifar da babban cikas ga kamfanonin membobin EuPIA. Kayayyaki a duk waɗannan rukunoni, zuwa wani mataki daban, suna ganin ƙaruwar buƙata yayin da wadatar ke ci gaba da raguwa. Canjin buƙata a waɗannan yankunan da suka rage ya haifar da ƙaruwar sarkakiya a cikin ikon masu siyarwa na yin hasashen da tsara jigilar kaya.
• _x0007_Pigments, ciki har da TiO2, sun karu kwanan nan saboda karuwar buƙata da rufe masana'antu a China sakamakon Shirin Rage Makamashi na China. TiO2 ya fuskanci karuwar buƙatar samar da fenti na gine-gine (yayin da sashen DIY na duniya ya fuskanci ƙaruwar yawan masu amfani da shi a gida) da kuma samar da injinan iska.
• _x0007_Matsalar yanayi mara kyau a Amurka da Latin Amurka ta shafi wadatar man kayan lambu na halitta. Abin takaici, wannan ya yi daidai da shigo da kayayyaki daga China kuma yawan amfani da wannan nau'in kayan masarufi ya ƙaru.
• _x0007_Kimiyoyi masu amfani da man fetur—masu maganin UV, polyurethane da acrylic resins da solvents—suna ƙaruwa a farashi tun farkon 2020, inda wasu daga cikin waɗannan kayan suka sami ƙaruwar buƙata wadda ta wuce matakin da ake tsammani. Bugu da ƙari, masana'antu sun shaida abubuwa da yawa na rashin ƙarfi waɗanda suka ƙara takaita wadatar kayayyaki da kuma ƙara ta'azzara yanayin da ya riga ya kasance mara tabbas.
Yayin da farashi ke ci gaba da ƙaruwa kuma wadatar kayayyaki ke ci gaba da ƙaruwa, masu samar da tawada da shafi na bugawa duk suna fuskantar babban ƙalubale sakamakon gasa mai zafi ta neman kayayyaki da albarkatu.
Duk da haka, ƙalubalen da masana'antar ke fuskanta ba su takaita kawai ga kayayyakin sinadarai da na man fetur ba. Sauran fannoni na masana'antu kamar marufi, jigilar kaya da sufuri, suma suna fuskantar matsaloli.
• _x0007_Masana'antar na ci gaba da fuskantar ƙarancin ƙarfe don ganga da kayan abinci na HDPE da ake amfani da su don buhuna da tuluna. Ƙara yawan buƙata a kasuwancin kan layi yana haifar da ƙarancin wadataccen akwatunan kwalta da abubuwan da aka saka. Rarraba kayayyaki, jinkirin samarwa, abincin da aka samar, ƙarancin ƙarfi da ƙarancin ma'aikata duk suna taimakawa wajen ƙaruwar marufi. Matakan buƙata na musamman sun ci gaba da wuce wadatar da ake samu.
• _x0007_Annobar ta haifar da ayyukan siyan masu sayayya marasa kyau (a lokacin da kuma bayan rufewa), wanda ya haifar da buƙatar da ba a saba gani ba a cikin masana'antu da yawa kuma ya haifar da matsin lamba ga jigilar kaya ta sama da ta teku. Farashin mai ya ƙaru tare da farashin jigilar kaya (a wasu hanyoyi daga Asiya-Pacific zuwa Turai da/ko Amurka, farashin kwantena ya ƙaru sau 8-10). Jadawalin jigilar kaya na teku ya bayyana, kuma jiragen ruwa suna makale ko kuma suna fuskantar ƙalubale don nemo tashoshin jiragen ruwa don sauke kwantena. Hauhawar ƙaruwar buƙata da ayyukan jigilar kayayyaki marasa shiri ya haifar da ƙarancin ƙarfin jigilar kaya.
• _x0007_Sakamakon yanayin annobar, an sanya tsauraran matakan lafiya da aminci a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na duniya, wanda ke shafar ƙarfin tashar jiragen ruwa da kuma yadda ake amfani da su. Yawancin jiragen ruwa na jigilar kaya a teku ba sa samun lokacin isowa da aka tsara, kuma jiragen ruwa waɗanda ba sa isa kan lokaci suna fuskantar jinkiri yayin da suke jiran sabbin wuraren da za su buɗe. Wannan ya taimaka wajen ƙaruwar farashin jigilar kaya tun daga kaka 2020.
• _x0007_Akwai ƙarancin direbobin manyan motoci a yankuna da dama amma wannan ya fi bayyana a duk faɗin Turai. Duk da cewa wannan ƙarancin ba sabon abu bane kuma ya kasance abin damuwa tsawon akalla shekaru 15, kawai an ƙara ƙaruwa ne saboda annobar duniya.
A halin yanzu, ɗaya daga cikin sabbin bayanai daga Ƙungiyar Kula da Shafuka ta Burtaniya ya nuna cewa a farkon kaka na 2021, an sami sabon ƙaruwa a farashin kayan masarufi wanda ya shafi fannin fenti da tawada na bugawa a Burtaniya, ma'ana masana'antun yanzu sun fuskanci matsin lamba mafi girma a farashi. Tunda kayan masarufi suna wakiltar kusan kashi 50% na duk farashin da ake kashewa a masana'antar, kuma tare da wasu kuɗaɗe kamar makamashi suna ƙaruwa da sauri, ba za a iya faɗi da yawa game da tasirin da ke kan fannin ba.
Farashin mai yanzu ya ninka fiye da sau biyu a cikin watanni 12 da suka gabata kuma ya karu da kashi 250% idan aka kwatanta da ƙarancin da aka gani a watan Maris na 2020 kafin barkewar cutar, wanda ya fi daidai da babban ƙaruwar da aka gani a lokacin rikicin farashin mai da OPEC ta jagoranta na 1973/4, kuma kwanan nan hauhawar farashi mai ƙarfi da aka ruwaito a 2007 da 2008 yayin da tattalin arzikin duniya ke fuskantar koma bayan tattalin arziki. A kan dala $83 a kowace ganga, farashin mai a farkon Nuwamba ya tashi daga matsakaicin dala $42 a watan Satumba shekara guda da ta gabata.
Tasirin Masana'antar Tawada
Tasirin da ake yi wa masu samar da tawada da fenti da bugu a bayyane yake yana da matuƙar tsanani, inda farashin mai narkewa yanzu ya fi kashi 82% sama da shekara guda da ta gabata, kuma tare da resins da kayan da suka shafi hakan, farashin ya karu da kashi 36%.
Farashin wasu muhimman sinadarai da masana'antar ke amfani da su ya ninka sau uku, inda misalai masu kyau suka nuna cewa n-butanol ya tashi daga £750 a kowace tan zuwa £2,560 a shekara. N-butyl acetate, methoxypropanol da methoxypropyl acetate suma sun ga farashin ya ninka sau uku ko uku.
An kuma ga hauhawar farashi ga resins da kayan da suka shafi hakan, misali, matsakaicin farashin resin epoxy mai narkewa ya karu da kashi 124% a watan Satumba na 2021 idan aka kwatanta da Satumba na 2020.
A wasu wurare kuma, farashin pigments da yawa sun yi tashin gwauron zabi sosai, inda farashin TiO2 ya fi na shekarar da ta gabata da kashi 9%. A cikin marufi, farashin ya yi tashin gwauron zabi, misali, gwangwani mai zagaye na lita biyar ya karu da kashi 10%, kuma farashin ganga ya karu da kashi 40% a watan Oktoba.
Hasashen da za a iya dogara da su yana da wuya a cimma su, amma yayin da yawancin manyan hukumomin hasashen ke tsammanin farashin mai zai ci gaba da kasancewa sama da dala 70 a kowace ganga a shekarar 2022, alamu sun nuna cewa ƙarin farashi ya kusa karewa.
Farashin Mai Ya Zama Matsakaici A '22
A halin yanzu, a cewar Hukumar Kula da Bayanai kan Makamashi (EIA) da ke Amurka, hasashen makamashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci da ta yi kwanan nan ya nuna cewa karuwar samar da danyen mai da kayayyakin mai daga ƙasashen OPEC+ da Amurka zai haifar da ƙaruwar yawan man fetur a duniya da kuma faduwar farashin man fetur a shekarar 2022.
Yawan man fetur da ake amfani da shi a duniya ya zarce yawan man da ake samarwa a kowace kwata biyar a jere, tun daga kwata na uku na shekarar 2020. A wannan lokacin, yawan man fetur da ake samu a kasashen OECD ya ragu da ganga miliyan 424, ko kuma kashi 13%. An yi hasashen cewa bukatar man fetur a duniya za ta zarce yawan man da ake samarwa a duniya har zuwa karshen shekarar, ta kuma taimaka wajen kara yawan kudin da ake samu, sannan kuma farashin man fetur na Brent zai ci gaba da tashi sama da dala $80 a kowace ganga har zuwa watan Disamba na shekarar 2021.
Hasashen EIA na cewa za a fara tara tarin man fetur a duniya a shekarar 2022, wanda hakan ke haifar da karuwar samar da mai daga kasashen OPEC+ da Amurka, duk da haka ana samun raguwar bukatar mai a duniya.
Wannan sauyi zai iya sanya matsin lamba ga farashin Brent, wanda zai kai matsakaicin dala $72 a kowace ganga a shekarar 2022.
Farashin Brent, wani ma'aunin danyen mai na duniya, da kuma West Texas Intermediate (WTI), wani ma'aunin danyen mai na Amurka, sun tashi tun bayan raguwar da suka samu a watan Afrilun 2020 kuma yanzu sun wuce matakin kafin barkewar cutar.
A watan Oktoban 2021, farashin danyen mai na Brent ya kai matsakaicin dala $84 a kowace ganga, kuma farashin WTI ya kai matsakaicin dala $81 a kowace ganga, wanda shine mafi girman farashin da aka saba gani tun daga watan Oktoban 2014. EIA ta yi hasashen cewa farashin Brent zai fadi daga matsakaicin dala $84 a kowace ganga a watan Oktoban 2021 zuwa dala $66 a kowace ganga a watan Disamban 2022 kuma farashin WTI zai fadi daga matsakaicin dala $81 a kowace ganga zuwa dala $62 a kowace ganga a tsawon lokaci guda.
Ƙananan adadin man fetur da aka samu, a duniya da kuma a Amurka, sun sanya matsin lamba kan kwangilolin man fetur da suka kusa ƙarewa, yayin da farashin kwangilolin man fetur da suka daɗe suna ƙasa, wanda hakan ke nuna hasashen samun kasuwa mai daidaito a shekarar 2022.
Lokacin Saƙo: Oktoba-31-2022
